International cereal prices climbed in November, bucking the overall trend of declining global food commodity costs, which fell for a third straight month due to abundant supplies and strong exporter competition, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported Friday.
The benchmark FAO Food Price Index, a measure tracking the international prices of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 125.1 points for the month. This represents a 1.2 percent decrease from its revised October level and places the index 2.1 percent below its value in November 2024. The current index is 21.9 percent lower than its all-time high in March 2022.
In a notable exception to the downward trend, the FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.3 percent. Global wheat prices jumped 2.5 percent, influenced by potential Chinese interest in U.S. supplies, continuing hostilities in the Black Sea region, and expectations of reduced plantings in the Russian Federation for the 2026 harvest. International maize prices also rose, while the rice price index softened amid subdued import demand.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 2.6 percent from October. This drop was caused by lower quotations for palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, which more than compensated for a modest rise in soyoil prices supported by strong demand from the biodiesel sector.
A marginal 0.8 percent dip was recorded in the FAO Meat Price Index. Global poultry prices decreased due to plentiful exportable supplies and heightened competition. Pig meat prices also declined, largely from ample European Union supplies and weak demand from China. In contrast, bovine meat quotations held steady and ovine meat prices increased.
The largest monthly decrease was seen in the FAO Dairy Price Index, which fell by 3.1 percent. The reduction was led by lower prices for butter and whole milk powder, reflecting rising milk production and plentiful export availability in major producing regions.
Similarly, the FAO Sugar Price Index registered a significant 5.9 percent drop from October, driven by expectations of ample global supplies and robust production trends in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Alongside the price index, the FAO also released an updated forecast projecting that world cereal output in 2025 will surpass three billion tonnes for the first time. The new estimate of 3.003 billion tonnes, a 4.9 percent annual increase, is attributed to larger-than-expected wheat harvests.
According to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 6.5 percent to a record 925.5 million tonnes. Consequently, world cereal utilization is expected to increase by 2.1 percent in 2025/26, with world trade in cereals forecast to grow by 3.3 percent to 500.6 million tonnes.