Karachi: Pakistan's urea sales for February 2026 are projected to reach 250,000 tons, marking a 28% decrease compared to the same month the previous year, while experiencing a 15% rise from January 2026. This modest month-over-month increase reflects a normalization in purchasing activities following a particularly weak January, which was preceded by substantial advance purchases in December 2025.
According to JS Global, discounts offered by certain manufacturers remained consistent in February, with Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) maintaining a discount of Rs100-150 per bag, mirroring the previous month. In contrast, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) did not offer any discounts for the second consecutive month, having previously provided a Rs150-200 discount per bag in December 2025.
The closing inventory of urea is anticipated to be approximately 0.86 million tons in February 2026, an increase from 0.63 million tons in January. This inventory rise indicates adequate channel supplies and slower offtake at the farm level. Company-wise, EFERT holds the largest inventory at 386,000 tons, followed by Fatima Group (FATIMA) with 288,000 tons and FFC with 144,000 tons.
Monthly sales trends show that EFERT and FATIMA are expected to see significant increases in urea sales, reaching 66,000 tons and 21,000 tons, respectively, in February 2026. Conversely, FFC's sales are anticipated to decline by 19% month-over-month to 142,000 tons. Over the first two months of 2026, FFC, EFERT, and FATIMA are projected to experience sales decreases of 9%, 55%, and 84%, respectively.
Meanwhile, total DAP sales for February 2026 are likely to reach approximately 79,000 tons, reflecting a twofold increase month-over-month and a 97% rise year-over-year. Company data suggests that FFC and EFERT are estimated to achieve DAP sales of 57,000 tons and 15,000 tons, respectively. The closing inventory of DAP is expected to be around 273,000 tons in February 2026.
Looking ahead, urea sales are expected to stabilize in 2026 with the easing of seasonal demand and a reduction in aggressive discount-led push sales.
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