Karachi: Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Can Ltd (PABC) is anticipated to report a 58% year-over-year decline in its fourth-quarter earnings for the calendar year 2025, primarily due to the prolonged suspension of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The company is not expected to announce any cash payout alongside the results, which are set to be disclosed today.
According to JS Global, the closure of the border, which has lasted approximately 5.5 months, poses a continued risk to PABC's earnings for both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The company faces potential inventory losses due to an accumulation of aluminum cans that were custom-produced for export in anticipation of peak beverage demand. If trade does not resume within the next month, these losses could become significant, adding further uncertainty to the company’s financial outlook.
JS Global has reiterated its Sell rating for PABC, citing the lack of clarity regarding the resumption of Pak-Afghan trade and the company’s ongoing investment plans as factors that increase the risk to their earnings estimates. Their analysis indicates that each additional month of export suspension could result in a 5% negative impact on the company's estimated earnings per share for the calendar year 2026.
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