The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) today projected a largely below-average monsoon season for much of the country in 2026, although several northern regions are expected to receive higher-than-normal rainfall.
In its latest seasonal outlook, the department indicated that Kashmir, upper areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan are likely to witness comparatively heavier precipitation during the monsoon months, raising the possibility of localized weather-related challenges.
The forecast also suggests that temperatures will remain consistently above normal between July and September. Northern Punjab and western parts of Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to experience particularly intense heat, adding to climate-related concerns during the season.
Meteorological experts warned that periods of heavy rainfall, coupled with unusually high temperatures, could heighten the risk of urban flooding in several major cities across Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Poor drainage systems and concentrated downpours may further aggravate flooding in densely populated urban centres.
At the same time, the PMD cautioned that below-normal rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan could deepen existing water shortages, placing additional pressure on agriculture, drinking water supplies, and other water-dependent sectors. Persistently high temperatures are also expected to increase the likelihood of heat-related illnesses and stress across the country.
The department further noted that rising temperatures in northern mountainous regions may accelerate glacier melt, increasing the threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Such events could trigger flash floods and pose risks to vulnerable communities living downstream.
Climate specialists have urged federal and provincial authorities to enhance disaster preparedness, strengthen monitoring mechanisms, and improve early warning systems to reduce the potential human and economic impacts of extreme weather events during the upcoming monsoon season.