KARACHI: Local cement dispatches in Pakistan are projected to experience an 11% year-on-year increase over the first seven months of the fiscal year 2026, despite a forecasted 11% month-on-month decline in January due to seasonal factors. According to JS Global, local dispatches in January 2026 are expected to decrease by 4% compared to the same month last year, totaling 3.32 million tons.

The analysis, based on actual sales figures for the first 18 days of January, shows local sales standing at 1.93 million tons. Average daily domestic sales in the northern region saw a slight increase in the first three weeks, from 96,000 tons to 105,000 tons per day, before declining slightly in the last week to just over 100,000 tons per day. In contrast, the southern region's average sales remained steady, ranging from 15,000 to 17,000 tons per day over the same period.

The month-on-month decline in local cement dispatches is attributed to the winter season's slowdown and harsh weather conditions. Nevertheless, exports during January are anticipated to rise by 43% year-on-year, propelled by sea-borne exports from southern companies. However, northern companies continue to face challenges due to ongoing border disruptions and political instability along the Afghan border, resulting in zero exports from that region.

Total cement sales for January 2026 are estimated at approximately 4.15 million tons, marking a 3% year-on-year increase but a 4% decline month-on-month. From July 2025 to January 2026, total cement sales are expected to reach 29.94 million tons, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, driven by an 11% increase in local sales, with exports remaining stable at a 1% increase year-on-year.

Pakistan's total cement capacity utilization in January 2026 is estimated at 58%, slightly down from 60% in December 2025 but up from 56% in January 2025. In terms of pricing, the average retail cement prices in the northern region are expected to remain stable month-on-month, around Rs1,380 per bag, consistent with the Rs1,375 per bag recorded at the end of December 2025, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

JS Global maintains an optimistic outlook, anticipating an 8% year-on-year growth in local dispatches, driven by a pickup in construction activities and monetary easing.

The post Pakistan Cement Dispatches See Mixed Trends Amid Seasonal Slowdown appeared first on Pakistan Business News.