A senior Pakistani diplomat issued a stark warning on Monday that peace and stability in the Middle East have entered an “extremely dangerous phase,” citing credible reports of a rapidly escalating threat of military action against Iran that could spiral out of control at any moment.
In a statement on the deteriorating situation, Sardar Masood Khan, former President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, China, and the UN, pointed to the extraordinary deployment of naval and air power in the region. He described the presence of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group, multiple destroyers, Tomahawk missiles, and F-35 jets as an indicator of grave circumstances.
Mr. Khan highlighted that US bases in Qatar and Bahrain are fully activated and that messages regarding a potential strike have been conveyed to Tehran, significantly escalating regional tensions.
He said that the consequences of any military confrontation with Iran would not be contained, predicting that the entire Gulf region would be engulfed. He clarified that Tehran has already announced that, in the event of war, it would consider US and allied bases in the Gulf as legitimate targets, which could severely impact the economies and energy systems of the Gulf states.
According to the former ambassador, Israel is continuously pressuring Washington to seize the opportunity to take decisive action against Iran, focusing on its uranium enrichment and missile capabilities. This pressure continues despite Iran’s repeated declarations that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
Analyzing the broader strategic landscape, Masood Khan stated that the ultimate goal of the US and Israel appears to be regime change in Tehran, an objective that, he said, is now being openly expressed. He warned that regime change through external pressure could trigger civil war within Iran, the collapse of the state structure, and prolonged instability, citing its internal complexities and diverse ethnic composition.
Turning to the implications for Pakistan, Mr. Khan explained that a major regional war could present serious challenges, including disruptions to energy supplies, a large influx of refugees, and an increase in the activities of hostile non-state actors. He also warned that India would likely try to take advantage of any regional crisis and conduct covert and overt operations in Balochistan and along Pakistan’s western border.
On the subject of Afghanistan, he described Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban since 2021 as complex. He said that despite pursuing multiple diplomatic avenues, including bilateral talks and Chinese-facilitated mediation, persistent cross-border terrorism from Afghan soil remains an open and persistent security challenge, leaving limited options for Islamabad.
Mr. Khan also commented on Pakistan’s global standing, stating that the country’s diplomatic and strategic profile has significantly improved over the past year. He cited successes in the defense production sector and growing international interest in products like the JF-17 fighter jet, but stressed that sustaining these gains depends on achieving domestic economic stability and political unity.
In his concluding remarks, Sardar Masood Khan stressed that Pakistan must navigate the current era of rapid global change with extreme caution, clear strategy, and diplomatic skill. He emphasized that if Islamabad gets an opportunity to play a constructive role in averting a wider conflict in the Middle East, it should seize it in the interest of regional and global peace.