A historic trade agreement between the United States and India is the result of New Delhi’s “strategic compulsion,” not a strategic choice, coming after a period of intense diplomatic isolation, former Pakistani diplomat Sardar Masood Khan said today.
The former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, China, and the United Nations argued that after military tensions with Pakistan in May 2025, India found itself globally isolated, which severely limited its diplomatic influence and narrowed decision-making options for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
He commented that the military standoff between the two countries led to a strategic stalemate. In parallel, open criticism of India and its leadership by U.S. President Donald Trump placed additional pressure on Prime Minister Modi to improve relations with Washington.
Sardar Masood Khan pointed out that during this period, Pakistan strengthened its trade ties with China, expanded relations with Russia, and advanced a long-pending free trade agreement with the European Union. In contrast, he said that due to intense diplomatic pressure from Washington, the U.S.-India trade deal was hastily finalized, largely favoring American economic interests.
According to the former ambassador, under the agreement, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Indian goods and services to 18 percent, while India has agreed to eliminate all tariffs on American products. He said this move has opened the Indian market almost entirely to American investors and businesses.
He further detailed that the deal also includes a commitment from India to invest approximately $500 billion in various sectors in the U.S., including technology, agriculture, and energy, which he described as a major strategic and economic victory for Washington.
Sardar Masood Khan pointed out that through this agreement, India has crossed long-held red lines, particularly in its agricultural sector, where import protections have historically been considered a politically and economically sensitive issue. He believes these concessions will create serious internal challenges for the Modi administration.
The former diplomat predicted that convincing Indian farmers that these measures will not harm their livelihoods and interests will be a difficult task. He also said that the agreement could expose vulnerable sectors of the Indian economy to intense global competition, with the poor and marginalized communities likely to be disproportionately affected.
Discussing the strategic aspects of the agreement, he highlighted that the U.S. has also secured commitments from New Delhi to gradually reduce its reliance on Russian oil. This represents a notable shift in India’s foreign policy, as it had previously continued to purchase large quantities of Russian oil despite several international declarations.
Sardar Masood Khan said that India’s long-standing narrative of strategic autonomy is now under criticism from within the country, with observers arguing that recent decisions have pushed the country toward strategic uncertainty and economic vulnerability.
Regarding regional implications, he stressed that Pakistan must remain cautious and vigilant. He noted that Pakistan has made significant diplomatic inroads in Washington over the past year, strengthening trust with President Trump and key decision-making circles.
However, he warned that India’s influence within U.S. political institutions remains strong, and it could leverage its newfound relationship with Washington to increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
Sardar Masood Khan concluded that while this trade deal may signal a temporary diplomatic reprieve for New Delhi, it primarily reflects the shifting geopolitical alignments in South Asia, for which Pakistan needs to remain prepared, resilient, and diplomatically proactive.