Pakistan’s veteran diplomat Sardar Masood Khan has issued a stark warning that the escalating hostility between the United States and Iran has become one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the Middle East, where paralyzed diplomacy has significantly raised the prospects of military conflict, posing a grave threat to both regional and global security.
The former President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir said on Tuesday that the current environment is far more alarming than any previous period of tension. He emphasized that as a direct neighbor with a nearly 900-kilometer border, Pakistan is among the countries that would be most severely affected by any potential escalation.
Khan pointed out that while the recent protests in Iran appear internal, rapidly escalating external threats are dangerously exacerbating them. He cited US President Donald Trump’s policy of offering negotiations while simultaneously threatening military action as a key factor that has made the already fragile situation more uncertain and unpredictable.
Discussing the causes of the crisis, the former ambassador explained that the fundamental issue facing Iran is more economic than political. He pointed out that severe sanctions have severely impacted ordinary Iranian citizens, fueling unrest and instability. Although Iranian authorities claim to be in control, Khan observed that international reports do not fully corroborate these claims, and Tehran’s position is that the US, Israel, and other external powers are exploiting the situation for the long-standing objective of regime change.
He warned that a key factor worsening the strategic environment is the absence of credible mediators. The P5+1 framework has become “virtually ineffective,” as the US has withdrawn from previous agreements. Furthermore, Russia and China are no longer in a position to act as effective intermediaries, while European countries are tightening sanctions rather than pursuing diplomatic avenues, further diminishing the space for negotiations.
Discussing the regional implications, Sardar Masood Khan warned that instability in Iran could disrupt border trade, endanger energy supplies, and create significant security challenges on Pakistan’s western frontier. He highlighted that any conflict in the Strait of Hormuz would immediately impact the global economy, causing a surge in oil prices and severe supply chain disruptions, and warned that hostile intelligence agencies could exploit porous borders to create more complex security problems for Pakistan.
From a military perspective, Khan assessed that although recent clashes have damaged Iran’s military capabilities, the country still possesses formidable security forces and a powerful retaliatory capacity. He recalled that the Iranian leadership has openly declared that any attack by the US or Israel would result in counter-strikes on American bases in the Gulf region, including installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
Citing the most dangerous potential outcome, he mentioned discussions within some Israeli strategic circles about the possible dismemberment of Iran. He warned that dividing the country along ethnic or regional lines would trigger a catastrophic civil war and profound instability, proving far more devastating for Iran, the Middle East, and its neighbors than any orderly political transition.
Khan also commented on speculation surrounding Reza Pahlavi, stating that while he enjoys support among the Iranian diaspora and some Western and Israeli circles, his widespread acceptance within Iran is uncertain. He argued that an externally imposed leadership could deepen internal divisions rather than heal them.
In conclusion, Sardar Masood Khan described the situation as constantly evolving and highly unpredictable, with no clear resolution in sight. He urged the international community to urgently activate all available diplomatic channels to prevent a catastrophic conflict, stressing that the cost of diplomatic failure would be borne not only by Iran but also by the entire region and neighboring countries like Pakistan.