The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating regional conflict has triggered a severe disruption in the global fertiliser supply chain, prompting warnings of a looming international food security crisis and dangerously high oil prices, according to a statement from the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP).
In a communiqué issued on Thursday, ECAP Chairman Malik Muhammad Bostan highlighted that the suspension of maritime traffic through the strategic chokepoint has crippled a vital route for essential agricultural nutrients.
“The disruption of this route is not merely an energy crisis; it is a direct threat to global agriculture,” Mr. Bostan stated. He noted that the Gulf region is a primary supplier of urea and other essential fertilisers to major agricultural economies, including China, the US, Australia, and Indonesia.
With the planting season commencing in the Northern Hemisphere, a prolonged shortage of these nutrients could result in significantly lower yields for staple crops such as wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans.
Addressing the domestic repercussions, the ECAP Chairman warned that a continued blockade could triple Pakistan’s oil import bill and propel national inflation towards the 15%-17% range.
Mr. Bostan lauded the government”s proactive measures and the role of the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) in maintaining the country”s “energy artery.” He urged Pakistani importers and exporters to prioritise national shipping lines to reduce dependency on foreign carriers and enhance maritime self-sufficiency.
The statement detailed a worsening situation in the fertiliser sector, with major regional producers like QatarEnergy reportedly scaling back or halting operations at large-scale urea plants due to interruptions in gas supply and shipping risks.
Consequently, urea prices have already surged by 40% to 50%, and the US is confronting a supply deficit of nearly 30%. This shortage is expected to translate into higher global food prices and potential scarcity in vulnerable nations as regional factories remain offline.
From a geopolitical perspective, Mr. Bostan remarked that the conflict has underscored the risks regional instability poses to global peace. He observed that US public opinion seems increasingly wary of further escalation, with growing domestic pressure on the Trump administration to pursue a ceasefire.
He also noted that the crisis has, paradoxically, allowed Iran to demonstrate its strategic endurance and “establish its presence” as a pivotal regional power.
Concluding his statement, the ECAP chief called for immediate diplomatic initiatives to resolve the Iran-US-Israel hostilities, while urging the Pakistani government to implement robust contingency plans to insulate the economy from further external energy shocks.