Pakistan’s cost of living has sharply escalated as the national inflation rate soared to a one-year peak of 5.6% in September, a development economists warn will intensify financial hardship for citizens, especially the middle class, already contending with growing poverty and joblessness.

The latest figures, released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), represent an unforeseen spike that significantly overshot official government projections. The Ministry of Finance had forecast that the consumer price index would remain within a 3.5% to 4.5% range for the month.

This surge contradicts earlier government claims of achieving a 60-year low in price increases. The monthly report from the PBS confirmed that official estimates had been inaccurate. On a month-over-month basis, the price index climbed by 2% in September compared to August, when the annual rate was a more subdued 2.99%.

Data indicates that the inflationary impact is more pronounced in the nation’s rural regions. In September, monthly inflation in these areas rose by 2.8%, substantially higher than the 1.5% increase recorded in urban centers. Annually, the rate stood at 5.8% in rural areas versus 5.5% in cities.

During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, from July to September 2025, the average inflation was registered at 4.22%. The current rate of 5.6% is, however, lower than the 6.9% inflation recorded in September of the previous year, 2024.

In its economic outlook, the Finance Ministry had acknowledged that recent widespread floods were likely to disrupt the agricultural sector and strain food supply chains, which could cause temporary price hikes. Despite this, the ministry had maintained its expectation of a more contained inflation level.