Consumer price inflation in Pakistan surged to 5.6% year-on-year in September, significantly overshooting the Finance Ministry’s own projections and raising fresh concerns about the cost of living, according to official data released Wednesday.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) monthly report revealed that the figure was well above the ministry’s forecast of 3.5% to 4.5%. The data also indicated a sharp 2% price elevation on a month-on-month basis compared to August 2025.
This recent spike marks a considerable jump from the 2.99% annual inflation recorded just a month earlier in August. The latest figures bring the average inflation for the first quarter of the fiscal year, from July to September, to 4.22%. However, the current rate remains lower than the 6.9% figure registered in September 2024.
The report detailed a more pronounced impact on the countryside, where the monthly price escalation reached 2.8%, in contrast to the 1.5% seen in urban centers. Annually, rural inflation stood at 5.8%, slightly higher than the 5.5% in cities.
In its September economic outlook, the Finance Ministry had acknowledged potential price pressures, warning that ongoing floods could disrupt the agriculture sector and strain food supply chains. Despite this, the ministry had expressed confidence that the inflationary impact would be temporary and contained.
Despite the inflationary setback, the ministry noted that overall economic activity remains stable. It pointed to a recovery in large-scale manufacturing (LSM), supported by positive trends in cement dispatches and automobile production, as a sign of strengthening industrial momentum in the coming months.